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Restaurant financial projections your lender can read.
Covers a day, average check, food and labor cost go in. Monthly cash flow, a 5-year profit and loss and your loan coverage ratio come out, ready to attach to the application.
- Laid out the way SBA lenders ask: assumptions, year one by month, loan payment, DSCR.
- Starts as a realistic restaurant, so you change what's different about yours instead of starting blank.
- Plain formulas: click any cell and see where it comes from. Excel and Google Sheets.
| Example | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Revenue | $1,042,650 | $1,213,183 | $1,312,058 | $1,418,991 | $1,534,638 |
| 9 | EBITDA | $108,509 | $203,837 | $251,442 | $303,856 | $361,499 |
| 13 | Net profit | $28,909 | $110,448 | $150,076 | $193,727 | $241,757 |
| 16 | Lowest cash | $124,626 | $191,407 | $312,303 | $470,582 | $670,010 |
| 21 | DSCR | 1.91x | 3.60x | 4.44x | 5.36x | 6.38x |
| 27 | Break-even / month | $80,386 |
What your lender checks, and where it is in the file
You type the blue cells
- Sales drivers and prices for your business
- Who you'll pay and from which month
- Rent, insurance and other monthly costs
- Startup costs and the loan terms
The file works out
- 60 months of profit and loss and cash flow
- 5-year summary with margins and growth
- Loan payment, interest and DSCR by year
- Sources and uses, and break-even
The numbers a restaurant forecast is built on
Restaurant projections fail in a lender's office for two reasons: the sales line is a guess with no driver behind it, and prime cost (food plus labor) is lower than restaurants really run. This template builds sales from covers per day and average check, then applies food, labor and occupancy costs the way operators measure them, so every number has a reason you can say out loud.
- Covers per day
- Seats x turns x days open. A 60-seat room turning 1.5 times on an average day is 90 covers.
- Average check
- Food plus drink per guest, before tax and tip.
- Food and beverage cost %
- Full-service restaurants run about 32% of sales, per National Restaurant Association operations data.
- Labor cost %
- Around 36.5% of sales for full service and 31.7% for limited service in the same data; together with food this is prime cost.
- Occupancy
- Rent plus common-area charges, commonly 6% to 10% of sales.
- Ramp-up
- New restaurants rarely open at full covers; the template starts at 55% and reaches full volume over 6 months.
Questions
How many covers should I assume?
Count seats, decide realistic turns for lunch and dinner, and multiply by days open. Then check it against a nearby restaurant of similar size; most first-year plans are too optimistic.
Should tips be in payroll?
No. Put servers' base pay in payroll; tips pass through to staff and are not your revenue.
Can I model delivery apps?
Yes. The takeout and delivery stream has its own direct cost %, so add the app commission there.
Will my lender accept it?
It includes what lenders commonly ask for: assumptions, year one by month, five annual years, the loan payment and DSCR, and sources and uses. Formats vary, so check your lender's list; every sheet is editable.
Does it work in Google Sheets?
Yes. Open the .xlsx in Google Sheets and every formula keeps working. It also works in Excel and LibreOffice.
Is it tax or legal advice?
No. It is a planning tool. Tax is a flat rate on profit; ask your accountant for your real rate.
Restaurant Financial Projections Template
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